မင်္ဂလာပါ Mingalaba! (Hello!)
This is Haneda from Myanmar Japan Thilawa Development.

Given the times we are living in, I’d like to once again venture into a topic I’m not particularly fond of—politics.

 

In the 19th century, the so-called “Great Game” was a prolonged geopolitical struggle between Britain and Russia for influence over Central Asia—a peripheral region where control of borderlands and outside intervention played decisive roles.

Looking at Myanmar today, the parallels are striking. From late last year into early this year, elections led by the military administration were held. Despite voting being suspended in certain areas, the process was declared “completed,” and a new government is expected to be formed in April.

However, with vast conflict zones and large areas where voting did not take place, the new administration’s effective control is likely to remain limited. Ethnic armed organizations and PDF forces continue to expand their presence across the country, resulting in a state of what might be described as “fragmented sovereignty.”

External powers are also shaping events in what increasingly resembles a modern version of the Great Game. China has stepped up its involvement through ceasefire mediation and engagement in political processes, prioritizing its Belt and Road Initiative and measures against cross-border crime. Meanwhile, engagement by the United States and the broader international community has weakened, creating an increasingly asymmetric geopolitical balance.

Fighting continues across border regions such as Rakhine, Shan, Kachin, and Sagaing, where control frequently shifts and local dynamics are closely tied to the interests of neighboring countries.

 

Under these conditions, the first priority for Japan should be the securitization of trade and investment.
For example, logistics routes within Myanmar can be abruptly disrupted depending on developments on the ground. To respond, supply chains need to be diversified by making use of border corridors linking China, Thailand, and India—building what might be called “geopolitical resilience.”

Second, given the limited governing capacity of the new administration expected to take office in April, it will be essential to engage in multi-layered dialogue not only with the central government, but also with autonomous organizations and private-sector networks, steadily building cooperation in humanitarian and livelihood-related areas.

In addition, ASEAN alone is unlikely to be able to improve the situation. Multilateral cooperation—particularly with Thailand and India—will be indispensable.

As Myanmar finds itself at the center of this modern Great Game, Japan is being called upon to pursue engagement that is pragmatic, sustained, and capable of bridging values and realities. The formation of a new government in April should not be seen as an endpoint, but rather as the starting line for a long process toward regional stability.

 

As someone witnessing a major turning point firsthand, I hope to avoid both excessive pessimism and easy optimism—choosing instead to face the reality before us, think independently, and do what I can to steer events, however modestly, in a better direction.

Through the industrial park business, I continue to ask myself what we can leave behind for the people of Myanmar, and to act on those answers, one step at a time.

Protect Thilawa!!
ကျေးဇူးတင်ပါတယ် Kyay zu tin ba deh! (Thank you very much.)

 

Note

“The Great Game” refers to the historical non-fiction work by British author Peter Hopkirk, which describes the rivalry between the British Empire and the Russian Empire in Central Asia from the 19th to early 20th centuries.